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Eddie Donmez Eddie Donmez is an Influencer

Founder at Creative Capital | LinkedIn Top Voice - Finance I +230,000 Followers

A $2.2 Trillion Asset Manager's big bet on Russia. Asset manager PIMCO has $1bn in credit default swap exposure - essentially betting that Russia will not default. Not only that, they have doubled down and also have $1.5bn in Russian sovereign debt exposure. What does that mean? Going long a CDS product provides investors with insurance against default. Whereas selling a CDS (as PIMCO are) is effectively them going long credit risk and allows them to collect a premium if Russia doesn't default. It's a big bet as Russia's CDS is up more than 400% over the last 6 months. Risky. #markets #credit #markets #russiaukraine

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Eddie Donmez

Founder at Creative Capital | LinkedIn Top Voice - Finance I +230,000 Followers

2y

More insights on AmplifyME & Amplify Trading: https://bit.ly/35jYwwi

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Eddie Donmez

Founder at Creative Capital | LinkedIn Top Voice - Finance I +230,000 Followers

2y

Interesting divergence between sovereign and corporate spreads via Citi

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Got a feeling they could make money even if Russia does default - I don’t reckon CDS pays out if the cause of default is sanctions

Sagar Singh Setia

Founder @ Marquee Finance by Sagar LLC | Financial Newsletter, Global Macroeconomic Analysis | Investor

2y

Eddie Donmez The regulator should ask the fund managers, hedge funds etc to disclose their Russian exposure so that we don't get a financial contagion if there is an "adverse" event! A kinda stress test is needed immediately to avoid a repeat of 2008 GFC.

In “normal times” higher oil price should help to reduce Russia's sovereign credit risk – but we are not in “normal times”… https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697688.2016.1211801

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Balkishan Yadav

JPMorgan | SSHS | Chartered Accountant. Providing expert analysis and advice on financial reporting requirements and compliance.

2y

Although the exposure is quite small when compared to trillion dollar investment but pimco makes a big bet on risky assets to grab a piece of pie, let's see how things turnout. From a macro perspective if Russia falls the west would move in deep inflation crises coz of that they are quite cautious with every move..

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Indra Chourasia

Industry Advisor - BFSI (Analytics & Insights) at Tata Consultancy Services

2y

Must be supported by realistic credit risk assessment, free of sentimental noise. Increased volume is by no mean barometer to truly reflect the intensified probability of default, disregard the prevailing emotions.As long as probability remains in lower thresholds, premium earned on CDS expected to be > expected loss from default of underlying debts.

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Ben Diagi

Product Manager in Finance & Tech | CFA Level II Candidate

2y

Would love to see how this plays out.

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